2021勞力士新錶預測！Rolex Explorer II將成焦點新錶？或是全新41mm藍圈Daytona？

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Rolex Explorer II將可能於2021年有全新50週年版本？ 2020年勞力士已經將全新的Submariner系列成為焦點主角，過去數年亦已經GMT-Master II、Sea-Dweller及Daytona多個系列作出重大的更新及推出後續作品，而剩下來的，就是Explorer II仍然後繼無人。而且Rolex於2011年慶祝Explorer II誕生40週年，就推出現今款式Ref.216570；來到2021年Explorer II誕生50週年，Rolex推出全新一代的Rolex Explorer II也是非常合理的事！

2021年的Rolex Explorer II會有甚麼改變？當然，如2021年真推出Rolex Explorer II的50週年版本，將會有重大的改變，根據以往的經驗，全新的Rolex Explorer II將會換上全新的機芯，亦有可能在腕錶上的尺寸作出變動！

2021年的Rolex Explorer II將可能有41mm的尺寸如果有留意2020年推出的Submariner，都會知道全新的系列已經從40mm換到41mm錶錶殼的尺寸，外界猜測勞力士似乎有意將旗下多個運動腕錶系列都更新到41mm錶殼尺寸，所以不少評論都估計，如2021年真的推出全新的Rolex Explorer II，則很有可能化身41mm的尺寸，宣告全新的Explorer II年代來臨。

2021年的Rolex Explorer II將可能換上全新機芯無論是Submariner、GMT-Master II及Daytona，全新的系列都全用上擁有70小時動力儲存的全新機芯，相信全新的Rolex Explorer II亦會如此。而由於Rolex Explorer II其實同樣擁有GMT功能，到底是否與GMT-Master II(Ref.126710BLNR)一樣用上3285機芯，抑或因應腕錶尺寸不同，而有小改款的新機芯，都是可以預期之事。

2021年的Rolex Explorer II將可能擁有全新陶瓷錶圈如今一代的Rolex Explorer II (Ref.216570)擁有一個24小時顯示的固定精鋼外圈，但這都已經是10年前的設定，轉換成陶瓷圈似乎是大勢所趨，但可能為了跟GMT-Master II仍然有一定的分別，將可能維持固定外圈，並且繼續用上單色的設定。 2021年的Rolex Explorer II將可能上調如今的Rolex Explorer II定價為HK$64,700，而如果真的有2021年全新的Rolex Explorer II，因應全新的機芯，根據之前Submariner的定價策略，Rolex Explorer II價格上調也是可以預期，到底是維持在$70,000以內，或是突破七萬大關則是未知數！

2021年同時會有全新的Rolex Explorer ？當然，除了Rolex Explorer II成為勞力士2021新錶大熱之選外，Rolex Explorer也是被預期成為大熱之選！Rolex Explorer (Ref. 214270) 於2010年推出，於2016年推出Ref. 214270 Mark II，經過微調，指針略為變大，「369」數字終再將夜光塗層帶回來。而事隔Ref. 214270最初推出的11年後的今日，與Rolex Explorer II同步更新的可能性亦非常之大！延伸閱讀：回顧Rolex Explorer歷史 369豈止是勞力士入門錶

2021年的Rolex Explorer將可能擁70小時動力？網上不少估計都認為Rolex Explorer在外型上的改變不大，但也有估計認為會加入更多的尺寸選擇，又或者從39mm輕輕提升至41mm之類的推測，一如上年推出的Osyter Perpetual一樣。但相信可以肯定的，萬一有新版本，就會換上新機芯，很有可能一如Osyter Perpetual用上3230型機芯，使機芯的動力儲備增至約70小時！

41mm Daytona才是真正主角？日前網上討論區突然流傳這一張圖片，清楚寫著是一枚41mm的Rolex Daytona，而現行款式都是40mm版本，莫非2021年將會同步推出41mm的Rolex Daytona，而且按圖片的定價，似乎是近乎精鋼版本的定價，而且看似用上藍圈灰面的設定，吸引程度大增！到底是真是假？如果是真的話，是將會有多一款精鋼版本的Daytona推出，或是40mm版本的黑白Daytona即將停產？此圖造成極轟動的討論，當然，Rolex根本未曾發佈新錶，就已經有新錶在錶盒內展示也太奇怪了，況且就算是媒體展示場合，也不會有實貨錶盒同步展出，可信性到底有多高，仍然是一個疑問！無論如何，我們即管期待，Rolex是否如外間預期般即將有新錶發佈，如有的話，可能下星期已經會有全新預告推出，請繼續留意我們的報導，以接收第一手新錶資訊！延伸閱讀：勞力士迷買錶必睇！10隻熱門勞力士Daytona入手定價一覽！(2021年最新定價)

Rolex, Patek Philippe and Cartier reveal their 2021 watches next week — here is what one dealer expects

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This year’s watches from the largest Swiss businesses will have been five years in the making and are going to be revealed next week in an endless stream of online videos and webinars hosted on Watchesandwonders.com.

While hoping this is the last time we don’t get to see new watches in person, we are still excited at what will be presented, particularly from the largest brands taking part in W&W: Cartier, Rolex and Patek Philippe.

In a preview of where he thinks the industry is heading, Watch Exchange London co-founder Arfan Mohammed writes that he believes Cartier is bound to surprise, and predicts how the mighty Rolex will evolve its portfolio of novelties.

Daytona and other Rolex rumours

In typical Rolex fashion, leaks and rumours abound already.

The Daytona is certainly being talked about after the revealing of a pair of vintage-inspired 42mm stainless steel models and a supposed picture of a 41mm stainless steel Daytona with a blue cerachrom bezel and blue sub dials.

However, as the Daytona is 60 years old in 2023, it makes sense that any drastic updates such as a new movement and fresh dial designs will wait until then.

Rolex places importance on anniversaries and the Explorer II is 50 this year, so a new Daytona would steal its thunder.

The Explorer II’s cal. 3187 movement is likely to be updated as it has only 50 hours of power reserve, 20 hours behind Rolex’s current standard.

The new Explorer II is likely to bear the traditional green and may also feature a cerachrom bezel with the inscriptions found on the original Explorer II, the ref. 1655.

Rolex has begun offering Oysterflex straps on an increasing number of models, which is likely to continue for precious metal offerings in particular.

With the Yachtmaster I, Sky-Dweller and Daytona all boasting the silky watch bracelet, the yellow gold and platinum Yachtmaster II will likely benefit from this upgrade.

The Explorer II ref. 216570, Airking and Milgauss will probably be updated or leave Rolex’s portfolio altogether as these models have been hanging on by their fingernails for several years.

Dial variants for the Datejust are likely to be replaced, as per last year, but only in the smaller sizes.

Cartier

With Cartier’s increasing popularity, the next move will be interesting to observe.

It’s likely there will be more skeletonised dials and modernised designs, but it’s difficult to predict how bold and in which direction the brand will head.

Patek Philippe

Patek Philippe famously discontinued the 5711 in January, so its replacement could be released imminently.

Rumoured to be 41mm titanium, featuring a sunburst blue dial, Patek’s President Thierry Stern has confirmed it will be a limited release.

It will therefore be challenging to obtain and secondary market prices will be high.

“This year’s releases promise to be explosive, with opinions guaranteed to be split as watch enthusiasts make cases for and against their favourite models,” Arfan Mohammed, a watch historian who has traded luxury timepieces worth hundreds of millions of pounds, concludes.

“A year ago the Oyster Perpetual was a forgotten collection but now it’s one of the hottest Rolex designs. This obviously won’t be the case for every new watch released at Watches and Wonders, but there will certainly be fruitful opportunities for prudent investors.”

What will Rolex launch in 2021?

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Guessing what Rolex will launch and discontinue this year is more than just an idle way to pass the hours in lock down; it can be as lucrative as studying the stock market or racing form because what the world’s biggest luxury watchmaker decides has a significant impact on secondary market prices for existing references (note the price rises before and since Patek Philippe confirmed it was nixing the 5711 for evidence). So, armed with little more than an encyclopedic knowledge of Rolex’s archive, its recent product pipeline and wider trends in the watch industry, Robin Swithinbank takes a punt at predicting what the brand will reveal in April.

If you’ve ever pondered Kierkegaard’s assertion that ‘life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards’, you could be forgiven for wondering whether he was actually considering the luxury Swiss watch industry’s novelty cycle – and particularly that of Rolex.

To outsiders, the industry’s use of the word ‘novelty’ is at best ironic, so incrementally small are the visual steps forward most brands make each year. Few laymen would have much idea Rolex actually makes ‘novel’ watches, so unflinching is the great marque’s approach to its core forms.

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But of course, it does and it will.

The big reveal

All should be revealed on April 7, when the brand takes part in its first Watches & Wonders and its first online watch fair. Very novel.

To go back to Mr Kierkegaard, it’s highly unlikely any of these new watches will rewrite the rubric. Rather, they’ll be spins on past triumphs – backward looks, forward steps, if you will.

This, of course, doesn’t curtail the great annual guessing game, which this year, as any, has been preoccupying the watch-focused corners of the internet for some months already. What will Rolex do this year? Really, no one outside the company knows.

Despite the size of its workforce, Rolex continues to keep an extraordinarily tight lid on its winter activities – so much one wonders if employee pillow talk isn’t somehow observed – leaving guessers with only one course of action. To look backwards.

The emotional hold of nostalgia over a watch buyer, and particularly over a Rolex buyer, is second to nothing in pushing people over the purchasing threshold

This means no one in their right mind would call an all-new model. Or anything that’s not round. Or manufactured with materials from the exotics box. As the joke has it, Rolex only makes one watch.

It also doesn’t stop us trying to articulate why Rolex’s product strategy still works – and seems to work better every year. While we’re here, Morgan Stanley, one of the big players in the bigger game of guessing individual watch brand annual turnover, has just published its annual Swiss watch industry report, estimating Rolex’s turnover at CH4.42bn.

That may be some way down on its 2019 estimate of CHF5.2bn – for obvious reasons – but it still casts Omega into a distant second on CHF1.75bn. Moreover, Morgan Stanley now believes Rolex to have 24.9 per cent market share, up from 23.4 per cent in 2019. Put Omega, Cartier and Patek, ranked two through four in the research, together and you only just tip Rolex’s total. Even in a pandemic and without an ecommerce business, Rolex is crushing the competition. If it ain’t broke…

There isn’t one reason why the Rolex way works, of course, and we could list relatively tangible elements such as build-quality and design simplicity among them, alongside the un-ignorable impact of decades of brilliant marketing. But to my mind, the fundamental reason is more deep-rooted than any of those.

It’s nostalgia. The emotional hold of nostalgia over a watch buyer, and particularly over a Rolex buyer, is second to nothing in pushing people over the purchasing threshold. For longer than anyone alive can remember, Rolex has been heroic. Whether that was because your dad wore one, or because James Bond did.

The power of this nostalgia isn’t new. It was there before the pandemic. In fact, I’d argue it’s been there since at least the mid-1990s, when TAG Heuer dipped back into its archives and revived Monaco and Carrera. In that act alone, it was almost as if Switzerland was saying we needn’t worry about the exponential pace of change now rewriting inherited social and fiscal codes, because it would be here for us, the same as ever before, no matter what. The industry has been providing us with rose-tinted glasses ever since.

Rolex in 2021

What then of 2021? Well, let’s apply the nostalgia theory to our low-level wager, which points to this being the year of the Explorer II. It’s exactly 50 years since the original Ref. 1655 Explorer II landed, and because Rolex has previous with half-centuries, it seems a safe bet for a revamp.

In 2003, it brought out the Submariner Ref. 16610LV, a piece with a green aluminium bezel that marked the 50 years since the Sub’s introduction. Dubbed the Kermit by fans, it was revived last year after a 10-year hiatus, quickly joining the long list of waiting-list Rolex watches.

Less easy to predict is what Rolex might do with it. Created for spelunkers, the original had a fixed 24-hour bezel, the idea being that in the pitch black of a cave, the watch would serve as a tool for determining day from night. Unlike the current generation though, it wasn’t a GMT.

It’s highly unlikely Rolex would reduce the functionality of a Professional model, so don’t expect the GMT function to clock out, and nor should we expect a smaller case. At 42mm, Explorer II is an out-and-out instrument watch.

With the 39mm Explorer, not to mention the Oyster Perpetual line, Rolex has the sub-40mm category licked anyway.

What we might get – again, keeping nostalgia in mind – is a retro spin on the look. The original had a black dial, baton hour markers rather than dots, straight rather than Mercedes hands, and the 24-hour scale on the bezel was less blocky – and far prettier – than on the current model. I’d gladly see any or all of those details return, reworked in Rolex’s suite of state-of-the-art materials. Rolex will have to be careful adding a ceramic bezel, or the online watch commentariat will call it a Chronomaster (that one’s for you, Zenith).

What also seems likely is a movement upgrade. Rolex’s next-generation calibres have been seeping through the collection since the first of them was introduced in 2015, but has yet to reach Explorer II. Sticking with that thought, it hasn’t reached the Milgauss either, a watch that’s due an update and that I can’t ever see being pulled altogether, despite the rumours.

Too much nostalgia in it to throw away, for starters. Renewed this year? I doubt it. I’d like to think Rolex is sitting on a project to significantly up the Milgauss’s performance, one for another year.

If Explorer II is as good a bet as there is, what could follow behind it is a moment in the sun for the Perpetual movement, now 90 years in the making.

And no prizes for guessing new dial colours after the success of last year’s Oyster Perpetual rainbow, nor fresh material combinations or the odd smattering of precious stones.

Allowed a final prediction, I’d suggest what isn’t coming. Some guessers have called a ladies Submariner, which strikes me as highly unlikely, partly because there’s no precedent for it, and partly because even if it did put out a 36mm Sub (already too small), Rolex wouldn’t call it a ladies watch.

Across cultures, case diameter requirements vary wildly, and then there’s the concept of the unisex watch, which is on the rise. While Rolex can hardly be credited with driving the genderless watch bandwagon, at the same time, many of its designs have hurdled gender boundaries without so much as a stumble.

Anyway. All this looking back-to-front is giving me misty eyes and a neck ache. To April then, and a novel-ish future.

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